---
license: odbl
language: [de, en]
pretty_name: polls.karbach.digital daily polling averages for Germany
tags: [elections, polling, germany, politics, tabular]
size_categories: [1K<n<10K]
---

# Daily polling averages for Germany

Daily averages of published opinion polls for the Bundestag and upcoming German state elections, with a simulated 95 percent
band, as published each day by [polls.karbach.digital](https://polls.karbach.digital/daten/). Every day stays in the file, so anyone can check what the
average said on a given date.

Coverage: 709 rows from 2026-08-04 to 2026-11-01. Federal values before 2026-11-01 carry the median
only. `tageswerte.csv` holds the averages, `umfragen_bund.csv` the 4299 federal poll results behind them, `SHA256SUMS` the
checksums. Spain and France are left out because of their legal publication bans.

## Fields of tageswerte.csv

`date` day of the snapshot · `election` for example `btw-2029`, `sl-2027` · `party` · `poll_average` weighted average of recent
polls · `median`, `ci95_low`, `ci95_high` simulated median and band in percent · `entry_probability` chance of clearing the
threshold in percent · `polls_used` · `latest_poll_date` date of the newest poll, which shows how old a state average is ·
`model_version` · `published_at` time of the model run.

## Reading the numbers

This is a scenario analysis based on published polls, neither a prediction nor a voting recommendation. How often the band
held is documented at https://polls.karbach.digital/methodik.html.

## Citation

Karbach, Max: Daily polling averages for Germany. polls.karbach.digital, https://polls.karbach.digital/daten/

## Licence

Contains information from dawum.de, which is made available under the Open Database License (ODbL 1.0). This database is made available under the same licence: https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/